I used to use VBR, but recently due to this problem
http://e2e.ti.com/support/dsp/davinci_digital_media_processors/f/716/t/284890.aspx
I disabled temporal noise reduction, after that the video bit rate increases dramatically at night, when video noise level is high. I set the target bit rate to 3Mbps, but the generated stream went well above 10Mbps.
So I tried CBR mode, and to my surprise, it has same issue, it's not constant at all!
I also tried ISS_DNF, but that caused frame rate to drop to 20fps from 30.
Did I miss some parameters I need to set?