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Ken Farrington

Before I get to the 4,000 gallons, I want to quickly mention something I thought was entertaining. In my last post I talked about the impact of the word "Electric" and to my surprise, I saw a quote last week from a carmaker saying "... we’re going to position this as a car first and 'electric' second …" - probably pure coincidence ... or maybe my audience is larger than I thought :)

Anyway, the 2 obvious barriers with EVs are 1) range and 2) cost.  Compared to golf carts that get about 10 miles to the tank/charge and SUVs that get about 300-400 miles, these current generation EVs are stuck in the middle at 50-100 miles.

If you're deciding between a traditional economy car that gets 400 miles/tank and costs $20,000 versus an EV that gets 50-100 miles/charge and costs +$30,000, it's a pretty straight-forward decision. But if you had to buy all your gas upfront, meaning 10 yrs worth or ~4,000 gallons (~$10,000) - that decision isn't so simple anymore!

And this is where the carmakers got it backward - they should learn from consumer electronics and go with the strategy of ... " Batteries NOT Included ! "

By separating the cost of the car from the cost of the fuel/battery (~$10,000), law and order is restored and we're back to a $20,000 economy car battle. Unfortunately, fuel expenses are now equal because your monthly gas expense just turned into a monthly lease payment for your battery but at least you don't have to worry about buying a new battery down the road if you decide to keep your EV for a long time. And if you do decide to sell your EV in a few years, your blue book value won't be a joke because now you only "own" the car but not the battery. The good news is that at least one EV carmaker is already headed down this path - you'll find them mentioned in this article "Who's got their electric car act together?"  

Sure there is still a range gap, but this will narrow over time and EVs have 1) improved acceleration versus traditional economy engines, and 2) their maintenance costs should be lower because you no longer have a gas engine or mechanical transmission. So they will fill a need, even though it will be a very small percentage of the passenger car market. Initially, it will be the traditional early adopters, but the next wave might be the generation currently in high school that will graduate from college later this decade. Their first car purchase might very well be an EV, and again, that sounds good to me because there will be a lot of silicon in those cars!

If you've got an opinion on this "electric" topic, I'd love to hear it! Later this month I'll discuss the real reason carmakers are rushing to get EVs on the streets. Until then, take care!

Ken 

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  • Ian, thanks for your comments. I didn't know Nissan is planning to lease the Leaf batteries with customers outside the US. As you said, it will be interesting to see where they have the most success.

    Cameron, I agree standardization would help drive costs down but I think there are at least 2 forces resisting this and both are coming from the carmakers. The first is their natural interest to protect a differentiating/core component of the vehicle. Today we don't have interchangeable engines or transmissions so I'm not sure battery packs will break that trend. Second is liability. Remember the notebook battery problems that surfaced a few years ago - I believe some were caused by aftermarket replacement packs that didn't meet the OEM specs and safety standards. I don't think the carmakers are going to let a similar thing happen with EV battery packs.

    I would hope, however, that within each carmaker, they standardize on the mini-packs used to create the larger battery packs for each car line so that they can leverage the volume across all their EV and hybrid vehicles and so that battery pack repairs are easier/cheaper to make.

    Paul, I think your battery life concern will probably be the main reason people "almost bought" an EV over the next few years. They might be comfortable with the range and cost, but if you "own" that battery, they will eventually wonder "what will I do when the battery warranty is about to expire?" - their resale value will be in an ugly freefall ... unless, of course, they are leasing the battery pack :)

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  • Ian, thanks for your comments. I didn't know Nissan is planning to lease the Leaf batteries with customers outside the US. As you said, it will be interesting to see where they have the most success.

    Cameron, I agree standardization would help drive costs down but I think there are at least 2 forces resisting this and both are coming from the carmakers. The first is their natural interest to protect a differentiating/core component of the vehicle. Today we don't have interchangeable engines or transmissions so I'm not sure battery packs will break that trend. Second is liability. Remember the notebook battery problems that surfaced a few years ago - I believe some were caused by aftermarket replacement packs that didn't meet the OEM specs and safety standards. I don't think the carmakers are going to let a similar thing happen with EV battery packs.

    I would hope, however, that within each carmaker, they standardize on the mini-packs used to create the larger battery packs for each car line so that they can leverage the volume across all their EV and hybrid vehicles and so that battery pack repairs are easier/cheaper to make.

    Paul, I think your battery life concern will probably be the main reason people "almost bought" an EV over the next few years. They might be comfortable with the range and cost, but if you "own" that battery, they will eventually wonder "what will I do when the battery warranty is about to expire?" - their resale value will be in an ugly freefall ... unless, of course, they are leasing the battery pack :)

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